Summary:
- Imports from China are up 4.5% compared to peak season 2023. This suggests shippers are pulling freight forward in order to mitigate costs associated with new tariffs on Chinese imports going into effect this year.
- Volume out of Vietnam has dropped for the first time in years, down 7% from peak season 2023.
- Major Chinese ports of Yantian, Shanghai, and Ningbo have seen the largest increase of exports compared to 2023.
- The United States is continuing to shift volume back to ports along the West Coast with 44% of imports during peak season arriving at Los Angeles, Long Beach, Tacoma, and Oakland.
Ocean Peak Season
Ocean peak season marks a crucial annual event for companies preparing to import freight ahead of the holiday season, the peak shopping period in the United States. Traditionally spanning from August to October, this period has started as early as June in recent years. project44 diligently tracks emerging trends during this pivotal peak season.
Most Common Countries of Origin for Peak Season
The chart below shows the rates at which import volumes from certain countries to the United States have shifted since June and July of 2023.
China continues to be a world power in manufacturing and has been for many years. Overall, China accounts for 40.7% of all imports in the United States. This year, China makes up 38% of project44’s imports in June and July, which is up 4.5% compared to the same period last year. This trend goes against the industry’s move towards diversifying manufacturing origins, a shift that gained traction during the COVID-19 lockdowns due to major supply chain disruptions.
One explanation for the increase in imports from China is the introduction of new tariffs against Chinese imports, as outlined in the table below.
These tariffs were initially slated to go into effect on August 1st but have since been delayed. However, the jump in Chinese volume during peak season suggests shippers are pulling forward freight unrelated to peak season forward to mitigate costs.
Another notable change in this year’s peak season is the nearly 7% decrease in volume from Vietnam. Vietnam made up 18.3% of peak season volume in 2023 and had been on an upward trajectory since the early 2000s. For the first time in more than three years, Vietnam is seeing a lower share of imports for June and July. This does not necessarily mean less is being imported from Vietnam; the number is likely being offset by post-peak volume from China being pulled forward due to the tariffs mentioned above.
Changes to Ports of Loading for Peak Season
The port of loading refers to the port where freight is loaded onto container vessels. The chart below shows the trends in the top ports used for peak season volume in 2024 and how their share of peak volume has changed compared to 2023.
Overall, the ports of loading have remained steady year-over-year, but there is a notable uptick in the Chinese ports of Yantian, Shanghai, and Ningbo. This is likely a result of the pending tariffs on Chinese imports.
Another notable finding is that shipments in the “other” category, meaning they shipped from any port not listed, have decreased by nearly 7%. While 5% of this number can be explained by the increases in Yantian, Shanghai, and Ningbo, it seems there is still an industry shift towards focusing on specific ports rather than spreading out supply chains. This is a trend that project44 will continue to monitor to see if the higher supply chain diversification trends that surged during the pandemic are dwindling in the post-COVID world.
Changes to Ports of Discharge for Peak Season
The port of discharge refers to the port where freight is unloaded from container vessels. The chart below shows the trends in the top ports used for peak season volume in 2024 and how their share of peak volume has changed compared to 2023.
The biggest change in 2024 compared to 2023 is the jump in volume to the Port of Long Beach. This has increased by 5% from 2023 and now makes up 22% of peak season volume so far in 2024. While some of this volume may have shifted from the neighboring Port of Los Angeles, it appears that the United States is continuing to move volumes away from the East Coast and back to the West Coast. In June and July, 44% of shipments were delivered to Los Angeles, Long Beach, Tacoma, or Oakland, while ports like New York, Savannah, and Baltimore saw decreases in volume.
Peak Season Summary
The 2024 ocean peak season highlights several significant trends in global shipping and logistics. Despite industry moves towards diversifying manufacturing origins, China remains a dominant force, with an increase in import volumes likely driven by anticipated tariffs. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s share of imports has seen a notable decline, potentially due to the shift in timing of shipments from China. On the United States side, the West Coast ports continue to see volumes shift back from the East Coast.
