A recent wave of tariff actions is quickly reshaping the global trade landscape, particularly between the United States and its global trade partners. While the full extent and impact of these tariffs remains to be seen, one thing is already clear:
For businesses dependent on a global supply chain, the only certainty is uncertainty. And that uncertainty doesn’t only affect long-term strategic planning. It’s already changing how businesses acquire raw materials and other inventory.
Which means the disruptions created by tariffs don’t begin when those tariffs go into effect. They begin as soon as businesses begin to fear the impact of that disruption.
“Imagine the time it takes to build an iPhone, or create a tire, or assemble a car,” says Tom Perrone, SVP of Global Professional Services at project44. “You need excessively long lead times. And so what happened at the end of 2024, just before the inauguration, is that a lot of customers preordered or increased their order volumes in anticipation of tariffs.”
By placing those large orders before a potential tariff increase, businesses chose to hedge their bets and delay the impact of new tariffs on their business—while taking on the potential risk that their inventory may become expired or obsolete before they’re able to use it.
But preordering isn’t a sustainable solution to the supply chain challenges created by tariffs. As new regulations and shifting purchasing behaviors disrupt the global supply chain, businesses must be proactive in preparing for this disruption and optimizing supply chain performance in the face of adversity.
“Uncertainty about tariffs will extend through at least the first 100 days of this administration,” says Perrone. “So the question becomes: how can shipping businesses respond?”
What’s different? Why tariffs are creating so much uncertainty in 2025
Tariffs are used by governments all around the world to protect their domestic industries and gain leverage in negotiations over trade agreements and other international affairs. The degree of disruption created by these tariffs—or the threat of tariffs—is determined by both the scope of the tariff and by how drastic a change the tariff represents.
Small tariffs targeted to a specific good typically only cause minor disruptions. In 2018, for example, President Trump imposed tariffs on imported aluminum, solar panels, and certain home appliances to encourage domestic mining and production of those goods. Former President Biden issued similar tariffs during his term targeted at renewable energy, electric vehicle (EV) production, aluminum, and steel.
According to Perrone, proposed tariffs are sometimes part of a larger strategy to improve the United States’ position in trade negotiations. “When you come in with a strong mandate and say, ‘We’re going to slap you with a 200% tariff,’ it’s probably a negotiation tactic more than an actual threat,” says Perrone. “But your ability to negotiate harder is strengthened by the mandate that you have.”
But the tariffs proposed by President Trump in 2025 have been far more destabilizing to global supply chains—largely because of how many types of goods and businesses those tariffs would affect. Within weeks of taking office, Trump began implementing tariffs, starting with a 10% tariff on all imports from China on February 1. This was followed by an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a new 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, both effective March 4. His administration has also announced steep increases on imported steel and aluminum, set to take effect on March 12.
This sweeping approach to tariff actions can create far more volatility affecting supply chains, resulting in the following:
- Sudden changes in supply and demand. Proposed tariffs may trigger a sharp increase in ordering, followed by a sudden dropoff once tariffs are in place. The opposite can also be true: as tariffs go into effect, underutilized suppliers may see an almost overnight surge in demand.
- Operational inefficiencies across established trade routes. Certain routes may experience bottlenecks and delays due to high shipping volumes, slowing down shipments and increasing costs.
- Increased supply chain volatility. Unpredictable shipping patterns can erode supply chain trust, forcing businesses to carry extra inventory.
- Materials shortages and production delays. As supply chains adapt to shipping patterns, manufacturers may face longer waits to acquire purchased materials, impacting production.
Adapting to tariffs: Long-term plans and short-term actions
While the overarching goal of tariffs is to incentivize investment into U.S.-made goods and manufacturing, the strategic requirements of making this transition can put businesses in a difficult spot.
Faced with new supply chain uncertainty created by tariff proposals, businesses typically take two paths to respond and adapt:
Long-term: Reshoring
By reshoring manufacturing and goods sourcing to the United States, businesses can protect themselves from the supply chain disruptions created by long-term tariff uncertainty.
“But it takes time,” Perrone cautions. “Spinning up a chip fabrication plant in the U.S. takes between six and 10 years. If you want to open a shoe manufacturing facility in the U.S. it’s going to take two or three years.”
Another option for evading the cost of tariffs is a tactic known as “friendshoring,” which involves relocating manufacturing and the sourcing of goods to close geopolitical allies.
Historically, America has relied on Canada and Mexico as its friendshoring partners. But after making Canada and Mexico a prime target for tariffs in 2025, Perrone argues that friendshoring isn’t an option for U.S. companies.
Even if businesses see value in one of these long-term paths, they’ll have to wait years to realize the benefits of these investments. Until then, U.S.-based companies need to seek out alternative strategies for mitigating supply chain costs and disruption resulting from proposed tariffs.
Short-term: Preordering
Industries anticipating tariffs can always preorder their materials and goods to secure inventory at a lower, pre-tariff price—and in industries expected to be affected by President Trump’s tariffs, that’s exactly what happened in Q4 of 2024 and the start of 2025.
While this strategy can offer short-term relief from the economic consequences of tariffs, it isn’t always a practical option for every business. For example, preordering is only possible when you have enough cash flow to support such a large purchase. There are also inventory storage and production constraints to keep in mind, both on the supplier and the receiving sides.
“You can’t just say in August, ‘You know what, we’re going to triple our order of engines—because you just can’t make that number of engines,” says Perrone.
Even when preordering is a viable option, it’s only a temporary fix to a long-term problem. No matter how you try to piece together solutions, disruption is inevitable—and how you respond to this disruption can make all the difference for your supply chain’s performance.
Where you’ll see the biggest difference: preparing for disruption in 2025
The final outcome of recently enacted and proposed tariffs remains to be seen. The first month of the new U.S. administration has been marked by a flurry of tariff activity involving tariffs that have been threatened, enacted, and postponed as part of a wave of ongoing negotiations with trade partners around the globe.
These sudden, unpredictable changes highlight the tariff uncertainty businesses must be prepared to navigate throughout 2025, if not longer. While these disruptions can’t be avoided, they can be planned for and managed to minimize the impact of tariffs on your organization.
Here are three ways businesses can adapt to unpredictable supply chain disruptions in 2025:
Putting the right data and team in place to answer the right questions
Businesses taking a “wait and see” approach to tariffs place themselves at an operational disadvantage. Reactive supply chain management isn’t sufficient to keep pace with the fast logistical changes taking place in response to new economic realities.
But businesses can only navigate this ongoing uncertainty when they have access to reliable data that can inform their strategic decisions—and when they’re supported by a team of experts who understand which questions need to be asked to properly evaluate dynamic supply chain conditions.
“One customer’s supply chain is in theory similar to another one,” Perrone says. “But the devil is in the details. We’ve got to understand what they do, how they do it, where they get their stuff from, and how they’re transporting it. Do they have that data? Is it accurate?”
Perrone points out that challenges in one part of the supply chain can signal potential opportunities elsewhere—if the company knows where to look.
With full visibility across supply chain operations, for example, businesses can monitor shipping volumes and transportation capacity to account for potential delays and disruptions before they affect that company’s inventory. Businesses can use this data to create a plan for any scenario, tariffs or no tariffs.
“At project44, we can look at all of this data to figure out where the needle is pointing,” Perrone says. “The uncertainty of all these changes is what we can help navigate.”
Preparing for a supply chain crunch with proactive planning
Supply chain visibility makes it possible to anticipate delays, bottlenecks, and other disruptions before they disrupt your shipments. From port activities to carrier capacity to border crossing trends, your ability to proactively plan for disruption is determined by how comprehensively you can monitor day-to-day activities across your supply chain.
These logistics are highly complex, involving many moving parts, shipping partners, and governments. Supply chain planning must account for all of these variables, putting businesses in a position where they can stay agile to unexpected changes and fast-evolving supply chain conditions.
That’s true for tariff-related disruptions as well as other events that might destabilize supply chains. When you have visibility across the entire supply chain—including the shipping infrastructure beyond the carriers, ports, and shipping partners you already use—you maximize your company’s ability to proactively adapt to unforeseen challenges.
That’s part of what makes project44 so valuable to shipping businesses.
“We can tell you how many trucks go between Chicago and Atlanta,” Perrone says, “and we know which companies service that route. We know what their capacities are, we know what they charge, and we know how often they hit their promised time of delivery.”
This end-to-end visibility is a unique strategic advantage for any business adapting to fast-changing supply change conditions. With access to real-time data for your inventory-in-motion, your business can make fast, informed decisions that keep your supply chain operations ahead of the curve.
Reassessing vendors, markets, and routes based on project44’s industry-leading expertise
As supply chain dynamics shift in response to proposed tariffs, businesses will need to reassess their existing shipping operations to make sure their vendors, trade markets, and shipping routes remain optimized for performance and cost efficiency.
Speed may be critical to the success of these strategic changes—not only to minimize disruptions to your own manufacturing and fulfillment efforts but because other businesses will likely be racing to secure alternative vendors ahead of their competition.
project44’s platform and experts are uniquely equipped to support these reassessments, helping you quickly evaluate your options, adjust your supply chain strategy, and minimize the operational disruption created by a changing tariff landscape—regardless of where you’re sourcing your inventory.
Perrone points to project44’s work in helping its customers adapt to dangerous shipping conditions in the Red Sea, where pirates have become a more imminent threat to ships passing through the Suez Canal.
“Eventually some companies just decided, ‘Forget it—we’re not going through the canal anymore,’” Perrone says. “‘We’ll go around the Horn of Africa instead.’ The team at project44 was able to say, ‘Okay, what’s your shipping capacity, and what kind of ships do you have that can go around Africa?’ Because not all of them can.”
project44’s experts aided those shipping companies by modifying their shipping routes and identifying the appropriate ships required for that journey. But Perrone points out that his team also played a critical role in helping those companies understand and plan for the supply chain disruption resulting from a much longer shipping route, which added two weeks to the shipment’s arrival time in Europe.
Businesses can perform similar strategic reassessments for its carriers, manufacturing plants, and shipping ports. To stay agile to ongoing supply chain disruptions, shippers may seek out carriers that offer consistent data connectivity to help monitor inventory in motion.
Similarly, the high cost of tariffs—as well as fast-changing supply and demand—may push businesses to seek out partners in new markets that can meet their production needs at a competitive price. Alternative ports may be sought out to avoid shipping congestion and minimize the tariffs imposed on incoming goods and services.
All of these strategic actions require comprehensive, reliable, and up-to-date data from across the global supply chain. Fortunately, Perrone says, “That’s project44’s bread and butter.”
Prepare your business for the unpredictable
The ultimate outcome of any individual tariff proposal is anyone’s guess. The tariff could go into effect for years to come—or it could quietly disappear through future trade negotiations.
From a supply chain perspective, though, the ultimate fate of those proposed tariffs is irrelevant. What matters is the disruption they cause—and how your business reacts.
“Companies should not be reacting to changes,” Perrone says. “They should have a plan to respond to any and all of these conditions.”
Creating these comprehensive plans is all but impossible on your own. That’s why project44 supplies your business with the data, tools, and expert support you need to proactively plan for the unknown challenges headed for your supply chain.
See for yourself—request a personalized demo today.
