Summary:
- Imports from China are up nearly 6% compared to peak season 2023. This suggests shippers have pulled freight forward to mitigate costs associated with new tariffs that went into effect in September. This is projected to continue post-peak as further tariffs are projected with the new administration.
- Major Chinese ports of Yantian, Shanghai, and Ningbo have seen the largest increase of exports compared to 2023.
- The United States is continuing to shift volume back to ports along the West Coast, with LA and Long Beach making up almost 40% of imports.
Ocean Peak Season
Ocean peak season is a crucial period for companies preparing to import freight ahead of the holiday shopping season in the United States. Traditionally spanning August to October, peak season has, in recent years, begun as early as June. This year, U.S. peak season has been marked by challenges, including tariffs, port strikes, and hurricanes. Despite these disruptions, companies have largely managed to avoid significant impacts on holiday inventory levels.
Most Common Countries of Origin
The chart below shows changes in import volumes from key origin countries to the United States since the 2023 peak season.
China remains a dominant player in global manufacturing, accounting for approximately 40.7% of all U.S. imports. From June to October this year, project44 data shows China making up 39% of tracked imports, representing a nearly 6% increase over the same period last year. This trend contrasts with the broader industry shift toward diversified manufacturing, which gained momentum following the COVID-19 lockdowns and associated supply chain disruptions.
One explanation for the increase in imports from China is the introduction of new tariffs against Chinese imports, as outlined in the table below.
These tariffs went into effect in September, so there were shippers that pulled forward orders to avoid the additional tariffs on imports from China.
Another notable shift this year is the nearly 4% decrease in import volume from Vietnam. In 2023, Vietnam accounted for 16% of peak season volume, following a steady upward trend since the early 2000s. This year, however, Vietnam’s share has declined slightly for peak season. This decrease does not necessarily indicate reduced imports from Vietnam; it is likely offset by increased post-peak imports from China pulled forward due to the tariffs.
Changes to Ports of Loading
The port of loading refers to where freight is loaded onto container vessels. The chart below highlights changes in the most frequently used ports for peak season imports in 2024 compared to 2023.
Overall, loading port activity has remained stable year-over-year, with noticeable increases at Yantian, Shanghai, and Ningbo in China. Together, these ports account for nearly 30% of exports tracked by project44 from June through October, reflecting the rise in imports from China.
The Port of Hai Phong, however, experienced the largest year-over-year decrease, with a 1% drop compared to last year’s peak season.
Export dwell times at major loading ports for U.S. have remained relatively stable. Yantian in China recorded the longest median dwell at around seven days, while Vung Tau in Vietnam had the shortest at approximately two days.
Changes to Ports of Discharge
The port of discharge is where freight is unloaded from container vessels. The chart below shows how the most used U.S. discharge ports have shifted in volume share during the 2024 peak season compared to 2023.
The Port of Long Beach saw the most significant increase this year, with volume up by 3% over 2023, now accounting for 23% of peak season shipments. When combined with Los Angeles, the Los Angeles/Long Beach area handles nearly 40% of U.S. imports from June through October. This trend reflects a return of import volumes to the West Coast after a period of increased activity at East Coast ports.
Despite labor strikes on the East and Gulf Coasts during peak season, key ports in these regions saw only minor shifts in volume share. New York, Savannah, Houston, and Charleston each had decreases of less than 1%, while Norfolk saw a slight increase. This stability suggests that shippers have not significantly altered their routing plans around these key ports due to strike risks or ongoing tensions in the Red Sea region. However, the small decreases across the board are likely contributing to the large uptick in Long Beach.
In terms of dwell times, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continue to experience the highest median import dwell times, despite challenges such as East Coast weather events and strikes. These delays may partly stem from ongoing rail congestion and delays, particularly as September saw record-high import levels.
Throughout the strike and hurricane season, median import dwell times at East Coast ports have remained steady, with the exception of Norfolk, which saw an increase of nearly two days from August to October.
Summary
The 2024 ocean peak season has unfolded with some notable shifts in import patterns, influenced by factors such as tariffs, port strikes, and global trade dynamics. Despite these challenges, companies have maintained steady holiday inventory levels, with import volumes from China seeing a marked increase and Vietnamese volumes slightly declining. U.S. ports experienced moderate shifts in activity, with a renewed preference for West Coast ports, especially Long Beach, over East Coast options. Dwell times largely remained stable across major ports, signaling resilience within the supply chain despite external pressures. This season’s data suggests that while global logistics continue to evolve, supply chains are adapting effectively to maintain stability through peak demand periods.
