Last Updated October 11, 2024
Summary:
- Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane the evening of October 9, 2024, two weeks after Helene and just 5 days after the end of the ILA Port Strike. Milton will continue to exacerbate recovery efforts for these other major disruptions.
- Milton brought tornados, over 18 inches of rain, causing major flooding, as well as winds as high as 120mph leaving over 3 million people are out of power and 11 million people at risk for flash and river flooding.
- The Port of Tampa is experiencing issues in power, but individual port tenants will ultimately be the ones deciding when to reopen.
- Last mile on-time performance has seen the largest impact so far, with inbound shipment performance plummeting 60% and outbound performance dropping 17% in the last 5 days.
- Full truckload performance is also starting to see impacts with an 80% decrease in volume in Florida as well as a 9% decrease in on-time performance.
Overview
On October 9, 2024, Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane. Milton brought over 18 inches of rain, described as a once-in-a-century rainfall event, causing major flooding and putting more than 11 million people at risk for flash floods and river flooding. Winds reached 120 mph, resulting in significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Currently, over 3 million people are without power.
Hurricane Milton made landfall just two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated the Southeast and the ILA port strike crippled ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, which ended only a week ago. In an already fragile supply chain environment, Milton is expected to cause further disruptions, particularly in transportation. For more information on how these types of catastrophes impact supply chains, tune into From Hurricanes to Port Strikes: Supply Chain Resilience in the New Never Normal.
Vessels in Vicinity
The map below shows vessels near the path of Hurricane Milton.
As indicated, container vessels have cleared out of the West Coast of Florida to ensure safety as the hurricane approached. Vessel traffic remains concentrated north of Florida, meaning the primary concerns are focused on Florida ports. Similar to the impacts of Hurricanes Beryl and Francine, delays are anticipated for the U.S. oil and gas industry, as Gulf Coast refineries may need to shut down or postpone operations. This disruption is especially critical as it coincides with peak season for U.S. retailers, who rely heavily on imports during October.
Ports Impacted
The west coast of Florida has sustained the most significant damage from Hurricane Milton, though the storm maintained strength as it passed across Florida to the Atlantic, causing flooding and high winds in other areas as well. Although the Port of Tampa was not directly hit, it is located less than 50 miles north of Siesta Key and experienced substantial rainfall. The port remains closed while damage assessments are underway.
There has been no inbound container vessel traffic to Florida’s ports in the lead-up to the hurricane’s landfall.
Truckload Impacts
Truckload shipments are vulnerable to delays from hurricane-related roadblocks and flooding, particularly as some areas are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall on September 27.
While the Southeast’s on-time performance rate is beginning to recover from Helene’s impact, it is expected to drop again due to Hurricane Milton and the resulting additional flooding.
Florida will see a decline in truckload performance due to the damage and flooding, but rates leading up to landfall were stable. Though on-time performance remained high, there was an 80% decrease in shipment volume when compared to the week prior. It is likely we will see performance rates decrease as shipment volume increases again.
Last Mile
Florida will also face impacts in the Last Mile delivery industry as roads become difficult to navigate and workers remain evacuated for safety. The chart below shows the daily on-time performance for shipments inbound to and outbound from Florida.
Already, inbound shipment performance has dropped to levels seen during Hurricane Helene, falling from nearly 90% a few days ago to just 58%. Outbound shipment performance is even lower than during Helene, currently at 73%. These rates are likely to remain low as road clean-up continues and residents return from evacuation.
Summary
Hurricane Milton has caused widespread damage across Florida and the surrounding regions, with significant impacts on supply chains. Key disruptions include halted vessel activity near Florida’s ports, potential refinery shutdowns affecting the oil and gas industry, and declining truckload and last-mile delivery performance due to roadblocks, flooding, and evacuations. These issues come at a critical time as the U.S. retail sector enters peak season. With ports remaining closed and shipments delayed, the full extent of the storm’s impact will continue to unfold in the coming days.
Concern for Safety
While project44 has made it a priority to provide frequent updates on Hurricane Milton and its impact to the supply chain, the safety of all people impacted by the storm remains top of mind. They and their families are in our thoughts, and we urge people to follow local guidelines for safety in these times.
